Two Euros or not Two Euros

May 14, 2012


Euro (Photo credit: Fernando D. Ramirez)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Stalemate not necessarily implicates a halt of minds. Rather it can be a great opportunity for innovation”

It is of great concern for observers as pressing issues, the global economic problems, the Iranian talks with IAEA and the P5+1 and the demise of the Syrian dictatorship.

We do learn from some writers that unless the Syrian opposition will enlarge its political composition and try to reach out to larger sectors of the civil society, many hurdles remain on the way to impose defeat on the Assad Clan.

These claims are probably true. As much as those assessing the interference of organized bombings, to be a difficult number in the equation opposing the killing machine of the regime against the people asking to exert its universal rights. 

Since few days the Syrian tragedy is expanding to the northern capital of the Lebanese north and this is not a healthy indicator.

We know that covert action following the example of Afghanistan, Kosovo or Albania will lead eventually to the defeat of the Assad dictator, and by itself this is a guarantee to oppose the Russian, Iranian, Chinese interests and salvaging concerns of the Syrian missiles and CBW threats.

The expansion of the conflict to Lebanon at a strategic level is similar to letting the missiles of the Syrian regime out of their hangars, but less menacing, hence the power struggle between great powers is getting very tense at the doors of the Iranian negotiations.

At this stage the Syrian agony will be long unfortunately, unless a major change will occur.

The change can be a Russian strategic modification after the government formation or an Israeli unilateral action after the failure of the Iranian negotiations.

In both cases we will need to wait most likely until the first week of July.   

As for the Iranian talks, it is out of common sense to seek an arrangement of sort that will tutor all parties, by defining a cadre of checks and balances that ultimately will be a grand bargain that will peacefully position Iran in the modern world.

The end game is for Iran to find its way to insert itself as a modern power exerting a model of peaceful governance and securing rights to all components of the civil society, and project an economic model generating jobs and consumer spending in the Middle Eastern region.

This needs a supreme vision, intellectual clarity and to assuage a different direction in steering the Iranian national interests.

Appendix to protocols, unfettered access, halt of enrichment, transfer of enriched uranium, closure of FFEP or else are all important , yet non pivotal for peace, as much as the true intentions of the supreme leader and his close entourage.

We need to give time that is very short for negotiations to produce a result, and to be objective I will be watching closely for the smallest positive indicator to step in and help the cause of tolerance and acceptance between different and competing geopolitical views.  Time is very short and we can’t extend it, unles the Iranian attitude and porposals prove very sincere and leading to a deal.

Coming to the economic problems stretching in the area from China to Portugal, it is hard to forecast developments. Yet if we assume that the US will benefit from low gas prices and that job creation will continue even if on a slow pace, I can expect the US track to be separated from the others.

It is obvious that what matters most are the Euro area and the PIIGS debt.

Austerity didn’t lead to a solution and public bonds will have severe consequences.

In Greece it is expected that new elections might well bring in a majority leading to detach from the Euro and meanwhile it is very wise from the Franco German entente to introduce a solution before things will get worse.

The solution can be to have two Euros, one strong and one weak.

The strong Euro can be the existing one in vigor and the weak Euro can be pegged with the strong one and having half of its valor.

The weak Euro can be adopted by referendum by end of July in PIIGS countries.

 “Where time is a commodity for thoughts to prosper and flourish, effective policies need not to tardy”

Thank you,