Where are we standing ?

May 29, 2012

Russian Federation: stamps

Russian Federation: stamps (Photo credit: Sem Paradeiro)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Any effort to figure out where exactly one stands will definitely bring mutual benefits to everyone else”

In the complexity of world affairs, some urgent matters emerge as priorities to deal with.

These priorities are the European economic and financial Crisis, the Iranian nuclear topic, the evolving political environment in the ME, the US recovery and presidential elections, the Chinese reforms and the Russian stance in energy.

As regards the European crisis, I am favorable to consider a mixture of relaxed austerity coupled to major public resources dedicated to consumption. In my last posting I proposed a solution based on two Euros that can reveal to be very practical and effective to avoid an entry into unexplored fields yielding losses to everyone.

As for the Iranian topic, I think that at this stage the West can take the lead and offer a unilateral release of sanctions on civil aircrafts spare parts and suggest as per already published advice, I quote unquote “Iran can truly make an example of  itself by phasing out uranium-based nuclear technology and shift to a liquid fuel based on molten-fluoride salts used in Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) nuclear technology powered by thorium, an obscure, mildly radioactive metal produced as a waste product from the mining of rare earth minerals. Thorium is plentiful, easily accessible and energy dense, a metric ton produces as much energy as 200 tons of uranium, or 3,500,000 ton of coal.  Thorium-based reactors consume their own hazardous waste and would serve Iran’s internal needs far more effectively than its current technology. As a nuclear fuel, thorium is both cleaner and safer than uranium and produces benign alpha radiation, unable to even penetrate skin “

Obviously in exchange Iran can offer as a gesture of confidence building an immediate halt to all enrichment activities and the closure of FFEP.  It can also sign the appendix of the protocols with the IAEA and this will lead to an easing of tension and relaxing of the negotiations in Moscow leading to a framework to insert Iran as a modern power exerting a model of peaceful governance.

All parties involved will need intellectual bravery and a true desire to conduct the talks in function of the global peace.

Whenever in the round of talks planned in Moscow, there will be no clear breakthrough, I am keen to consider that further sanctions will take place and a growing divergence will be witnessed between Iran and the rest of the world. All options will be then on the table comprising an Iranian and/or Hezbollah preemptive action.

Coming to the political environment in the ME, I think there are 3 screens to look at and these are : the Egyptian, the Syrian and the Lebanese.    

As for Egypt it is very likely that an agreement will take place between MB and the reformists that will secure a form of power sharing where the future president will delegate a lot of executive power to the PM and to a presidential council. Reforms will be in the making and a march for prosperity will initiate, following a Turkish model for growth.

As for Syria, it is clear that the draining of the Assad clan and its Russian and Iranian allies will proceed until a strategic shift will become visible. This shift can come only from the Russians; hence the patience exerted by US policy makers on Syria. Russian planners are aware that the Syrian theater is well connected to the Lebanese and unless they act wisely, they might find themselves handling two exploding theaters.

Therefore the bet on Russian logic and rational based on their national interests is very effective. I envisage the Russians sticking to the stalemate for now simply because they didn’t develop a clear way out yet. In truth Russians cannot develop this if they think only in terms of Syrian theater, either in applying a Yemeni model or else.

Russia needs to realize that the opportunities of sharing peacefully the Mediterranean offshore in Lebanon are much more interesting than maintaining a naval base in Tartous, or safeguarding the interest of a falling house of Assad.

From above the Russian solution will be to offer exile to Assad clan and replace it by the national aspirations of the Syrian population. Any delay will be only affecting negatively the Russian prestige and long term interests.

The advent of a Russian peace making in the Mediterranean will enforce the role of this nation to cater energy for the world, and help it develop openness and guidance in its own society and cure its demographic illness.

We do know that the Obama administration is trying its best to meet the election date in November without any major international crisis, and I wish them well.

Yet all analysts agree that once the objective of the administration is clear any international player can shoot to drown it.

While economic data will persist flowing in, and the FED standing by ready for any QE3, I expect the jobless rate to stay above 8 % even if sentiment is great and consumer spending will grow.   

It is expected that the Chinese leading party will be mediating between proceeding with growth and elaborating discreet reforms that will tolerate prosperity without generating instability.

The crisis demonstrates that China is fully connected to the world economy and that a major power cannot exert a leading role unless it shares a lot of vision and sacrifices in leadership.     

The King of Israel will keep its readiness and preparedness and drill again and again sorties and alarms, until the second squadron of F22 will be in place and a third carrier will be on the way.

From above we can understand that moving sands are all around.   

“Peace is a blind standing at a light, where vehicles are coming from all intersections. Still, visible things can be seen by the heart”

Thank you,