Pinot Roots and Magnolia Movement

June 28, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“… Yelp at the moon and talk in tongues , assent to leer toward implosion

Near slumber now, etch precious, beside the scent of the richest of teas,

and bouquets of nomadic autumn ,

Sleep over leaves that are green, and kaleidoscope-vivid

enhance your reverie and tempt the pungent perfume,

of the tenderly-parented Pinot “ Opus in Silk by Alan Reed

Lately some political events were registered in the European continent such as the referendum in the UK, Local elections in Italy and the general elections in Spain.

There were also other issues at stake in nearby geographical areas, the Israeli/Turkish agreement, the struggling Iranian economy and the ramifications of the Syrian crisis in neighboring countries (Jordan/Lebanon and Iraq).  We can add also the penned letter of apology from Erdogan to Putin.

While politics in the European Continent in tandem with the US primaries do confirm a structural major crisis of the liberal order, and a reference can be the Middle Income gap, , pervasive global debt be it Italian , Greek , Portuguese , Japanese , Chinese or Venezuelan reiterate the necessity to renovate international institutions to face the new modern challenges. A reference to the Bond markets situation can be checked

Western architecture requires re-elaborating and rethinking the harmony of the international system. New ideas can be to call for the first edition of a G 12, to include European founders, China, Japan, India, Russia and the US, where the subject of debates will be, Refugees, Crisis, International Trade and Navigation. Two entities need to be created; one is the International Private Assets Agency under BASEL supervision. (It will find the nexus between private wealth concentration and other system metrics and propose policies to adjust), and secondly a Migration & Conflicts Affairs Center to be located in Beirut elevating the Refugees Convention into a parameter for world growth and peace.

“We human beings are communitarian beings in essence; as we genuinely thrive to the extent that we are bound with fellow human beings in solidarity and trust.”
As Pearl Buck says “When the novelist begins to make shapes and styles and techniques and new schools, then he/she is like a ship stranded upon a reef whose propeller, whirl wildly as it will, cannot drive the ship onward. Not until the ship is in its element again can it regain its course.”

Isn’t the Ship’s element , the human dimension within an international system of evolving workable rules and regulations, where methods and sources are dedicated to the well being of global citizens?.

There is a point here and I would recommend to the Financial masters of the Universe, to evolve Bretton Woods from merely an expression and tool of Western primacy (containment, pivot, global strike, reset, Quantitative easing, etc…) into a Pinot Roots International Conference that will propose and put in place a new mechanism of global governance not only monitored by Bankers but also by others having at heart the global harmony not selfish greed alone.

The New Liberal Order from Bretton Woods to Pinot Roots, will lead to the Creation of new international agencies and the reinforcement of the Western geopolitical architecture, where Russian neutrality will be the custodian of the Matryoshka Order, and where the Chinese integration with the liberal order will be best expressed through the hermetic and heavenly closure of Pandora’s box, after bringing in it all mythical evils which were released previously.

The positive note about the structural global crisis is that it will enable the majority of handful private assets parked in overseas safe heavens, to be redistributed to safeguard global interests by diminishing instability and social tensions, in respect of geopolitical necessities.

This singular international opportunity is a sounding alarm for Lebanon,  a nation without a state hosting a tremendous amount of refugees.

Lebanon needs to move forward and approve the electoral law, immediately, no ifs or buts. The principle is that a proportional system in absence of the Senate is not accepted by the sectarian interests as much as the Orthodox draft will not be accepted by the Secular. Both social forces are intertwined and must coexist in peace to proceed.

The compromise is the mixed law, as per following link

and to be frank, Lebanese politicians who are in charge today must realize that time is short and they need to act or else they will be totally responsible for the outcome of the future mess they will be unable to manage. Talal Arslan, Nabih Berri, Tammam Salam, Saad Hariri, Sejean Azzi, Mohammad Raad, and all the rest of corrupt and failed elite,  have two options : either to resign or to approve the mentioned draft law by the end of August, and call for general elections within an acceptable time frame by the end of February 2017.

International opposition and popular forces need to contest the Leaning Financial Empire and rethink the pillars of international cooperation; however this should not become populist and racist, rather reflect a spirit of solidarity AND HUMAN TRUST.

The convergence of purposes and means between international and local actors will support the idea of peaceful rotation of power in Lebanon, where opposition forces will create a magnolia movement to express governance.

Under the Magnolia banner all candidates, individuals, lists, parties etc,, will ally and run for shared governance, security , legality, justice and reforms , towards the third Lebanese Republic, as alternative to the second Republic of despair , demise and inertia.

International Pinot Roots and Lebanese Magnolia Movement are liberal expressions.

“…No more untamed, no more so free,
Nor so young, nor so wild and aflame were we.
Dearer to us grew other things:
Easy sleep, books, a day’s quiet holiday,
Good talk beside a fire, the beauty of old face …” Magnolia Tree Poem

Thank you ,


The Electoral Law for Lebanon , by The Lebanese Opposition

June 17, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

Considering the actual Lebanese stalemate and the surrounding dangerous geopolitical environment, it is a major priority for the Lebanese Opposition and all the components of the Lebanese civil society, to unite behind a common electoral denominator which is widely representative and carries in it the germs of fairness and modernity.

We all know that the collective Lebanese effort to gain independence and build a nation/state had major limits since 1920. In truth we all failed in the First republic to spur into the state that we were gifted, significant metrics in governance, decency and sovereignty. Corruption and dilettantism were rampant.

We failed again since the Second Republic was instated in 1990 to achieve a reconstruction of hearts and minds that would accompany the civil society into modernity. Lebanese Politicians extracted from the sectarian communities, played into divisions, to rampage the state, mismanage resources, funnel capital, embezzle funds, build followers, disrupt the finances, diminish sovereignty, augment the national debt and erase citizens. The actual elite in power, is a dangerous mafia that represents a major threat to the national security and to the Lebanese independence. Not the least they pursue stubbornly through an illegitimate dialogue committee, several picnic meetings, where settings of flowers center the main table of the conference, without any tangible result. Unhappy with their wrongdoing the elite of failed politicians, is keeping distant the true representatives of the people, such as syndicates, entrepreneurs, students , artisans, independents and others from being engaged in such a primary national issue, the electoral law.

Lebanon, where the state lacks behind the extraction of its own resources from the Mediterranean, the national edifice is severely damaged and all risks converge by telling that the actual second republic is heading to its own demise. One can demur but unless we make a proposal, clarity is affected and gloom abundant.

Let us take some facts and numbers into consideration. Lebanon has no president, yet it has 21 acting ministers and 3 resigned , 128 members of parliament, 2 main levels of administrative divisions, the Muhafazat counting also BAALBECK/HERMEL and AKKAR; and 27 CAZAS (QADA’A) with Beirut the capital.
Lebanon has approximately 3.400.000 registered voters, about 2.300.000 million refugees, and it has 1.1 Lebanese who emigrated in each four families. The highest birth rate is in the north and the highest death rate in the BEKAA, it is thought that illiterate residents (less than 7 years of school) still account for approximately 400.000.

Lebanon has about 1120 municipalities and approximately 1500 villages; it has thousands of public officials and employees, ranging from politicians, to armed forces (Army, FSI, GS, Intelligence, Customs, etc.) firemen, central bank employees, public officials in ministries including diplomats and social security, semi governmental institutions such as OGERO, MEA, Green Project, airports, ports, and public schools accounting for more than 220,000 people which on an average of 1 to 4, they interrelate to approximately 900.000 Lebanese citizens in excess.

Lebanon has hundreds of private industries and independent firms, a significant number of lawyers, doctors, engineers, beauty salons, small bakeries, Security agencies, landlords cultivating their lands, a flourishing banking sector employing more or less 80.000 people, a builder/construction and real estate big dimension, and a dynamic jewelry sector employing hundreds of citizens.
The trade sector, Private Hospitals, and the tourism sector (including hotels, restaurants, beaches and travel companies ) most likely account for much of the consumer spending and the national GDP with thousands of employees also. Although unfortunately these are in the midst of a major crisis. Hence the private sector more or less has to do with approximately 900.000 Lebanese citizens in excess. The state here is totally absent if not for tax collection.

Lebanon has also immersed traffics based on smuggling drugs, arms, cars, luxurious items, black markets, money laundering; and these generate illegal income for an unknown number of citizens. And yet the majority of the Lebanese and other residents are living under very tough social conditions and simultaneously the country is politically witnessing a vertical division.

In truth the nation is delineated following two divergent notions; in turnout fewer than 50 % in the latest 2009 elections, and in the number of confessional registered voters almost equivalent in number. Sense making indicates that electoral redistricting  in a new electoral law will not modify the fragile Lebanese equilibrium per se’, unless it will be coupled to a change in minds, where good governance will mean above all accountability and it will respond to a functioning representation.

Obviously Lebanon cannot move forward forever with unity cabinets or technocrat cabinets or other denominations, avoiding any kind of effective delivery of services and upgrade of the state structures and/or infrastructures and reforms. The rule of profiteers and corrupted elite cannot substitute the rule of law and order.

Law 25, adopted in September 2008, is the Law on the Election to the Chamber of Deputies. The adoption of Law 25 followed a three-year campaign for electoral reform, which included the work of the National Commission for Electoral Law (headed by late former minister, Fouad Boutros) which had prepared a draft election law that proposed a new electoral system and important technical improvements to the electoral process. Law 25 is Lebanon’s fourth law since 1990. As widely expected after the parliamentary elections on 7 June 2009, there is a continued push for a new electoral system and for the adoption of key measures to protect secrecy of the ballot, and the establishment of an independent election administration, that will not necessarily take over from the interior ministry rather to act in unison.

The draft law of Late Fouad Boutros is based on a mixed electoral system with proportional representation which is introduced in parallel to the majority system with dual districting. It recommends among several topics; an independent electoral commission to oversee the elections; regulation of campaign spending; regulation of Media coverage of election campaigns; holding the entire national elections on one day; encouraging women candidacy by introducing a women’s quota on candidates’ lists,  and deadlines for candidate and list registration.

In a fine tuning of the proposed electoral system, of the late Fouad Boutros, The Lebanese Opposition suggests that Members of Parliament are voted for as follows:60 Members are elected by voters in each Qada via the majority system ( M) and 68 Members are elected by voters in each Muhafaza via the proportional system (PR).

Electoral Districts and allocation of Seats for all Lebanon will become: North Lebanon 28 seats divided into 12 majority system (M) and 16 proportional (PR )

Northern Mount Lebanon 16 seats divided into 7 majority system (M) and 9 proportional (PR);

Beirut   19 seats divided into 9 (M) and 10 (PR);

Southern Mount Lebanon 19 seats divided into 10 (M) and 9 (PR);

South Lebanon& Nabatieh 23 seats divided into 10 (M) and 13 (PR);

Bekaa & Baalbek/ Hermel  23 seats divided into 12(M) and 11 (PR);

( the division between M and PR respects a simple concept where PR will have always a  preference) ); intakes per caza can be further detailed and these are very simple for intuition (please refer below for examples of the North and Beirut).

The national list will be on a 3 Lebanon concept as it will represent 3 geographic areas/lists/tickets of about 1.1 million voters each. The first will include Akkar, Minieh Dinnieh, Tripoli, Zgharta, Koura, Batroun, Bcharre’ and Baalbeck Hermel totaling 21 seats for parliament, very much balanced in sects and confessions. The second will include Jbeil, Kesrouan, Metn, Baabda, Aley , Chouf and Beirut 1,2,3  totaling 28 very much balanced in confessions . Finally the third will include Zahle’, West Bekaa, Rashaya, Jezzine, Saida, Bint Jbeil, Zaharani, Nabatye, Tyre, Hasbaya Marjayoun totaling 19 , much about the same balance.

There will be also other limits on the age of candidates, where the Qadaa can accept candidates up to 60 years, while the national list can allow candidates up to 65. In counting the votes in the Mouhafaza a proportional system of remainder will be respected and a threshold of 7 % of total voters SUMMING UP the 3 areas will enable admission of lists/parties/entities/movements to the parliament on a national level.

In dissecting the national accord of TAEF, we all agree about the constitutional achievements of the ten sovereign points, yet we all disagree on the practical steps to express governance and guidance, and this is the front door to the third republic.

Following the general elections we need not forget to call on Beirut 1 conference for dialogue as per the constitution, and introduce true reforms paving the way for Millennial to bridge the gap with the institutions. Among these reforms are, limiting the speaker to maximum two mandates during life time, limits to the PM power in concert with the executive power harmony, reviving the option to dissolve the parliament in case of deadlock, to be introduced in tandem to the creation of the Vice president post who will be the custodian of presidential powers until a president is elected. A close time table will be set to define the defense strategy and find the formula where non state actors will be included in the state.

Time is ripe for a new mixed electoral law to be approved by Mid September and elections to be called anytime starting 02 October up to end of February the latest.

My forecast is an absolutely new parliament full of energy and dynamism, all talents for Lebanon.

Wish all candidates luck, and above all I wish success and victory to all candidates and lists running under the banner of The Lebanese Opposition.

Vinca il Migliore .

Thank You,

For reference,08,YYboutrosdraftguideen.pdf

(North Lebanon seats total 28

e.g. Tripoli 4 M ( Sunni 2 Alawi 1 G Orthodox 1)  4 PR ( sunni 3 maronite 1) Total 8

Minnieh / Danniye 1 M ( Sunni)  2 PR ( Sunni)  Total 3

Akkar*      3 M ( Greek Orthodo 1 Sunni 1 Maronite 1)  4 PR ( Sunni 2 Alawite 1 Greek Orthodox 1) Total 7

Zghorta    1 M  ( Maronite 1)   2 PR ( Maronite 2 )  Total 3

Becharre     1 M ( Maronite )  1 PR ( Maronite )  Total 2

Batroun   1 M ( Maronite ) 1 PR ( Maronite)  Total 2

Koura 1 M (Greek Orthodox) 2 PR (Greek Orthodox) Total 3 )

Beirut seats total 19 divided into 9 majority system (M) and 10 proportional (PR)

District 1 will have 5 M ( Greek Catholic 1 , Armenian Orthodox 2 , Greek Orthodox 1, Maronite 1 ) , District 2 will have 2 M (  Sunnis 2),and District 3 will have 2 M ( Sunnis 2),  while the 10 Proportional to be voted on the same list/movement in the area 2 will be ( Minorities 1, Armenian Orthodox 1, Sunni 2 , Greek Orthodox 1, Armenian Catholic 1, Shiite 2 , Druze 1 , Evangelical 1).



Contest the leaning empire

June 11, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“A convention, in the sense of a meeting, is a gathering of individuals who meet at an arranged place and time in order to discuss or engage in some common interest. “ WIKIPEDIA

In one of the questions posted on the website of the US national intelligence council (NIC) related to global trends 2035 expected to be announced by the end of 2016,

The authors seek contributors to join the conversation by inquiring the following: Which currently unresolved questions or uncertainties regarding society, economy, and politics are likely to be most game-changing through 2035?

By contrast in the US Naval Institute “Naval Aviation Vision 2016/2025” document of 84 pages, published yesterday,

One of the key phrases of the summary is: “ Naval Aviation is an in-demand force that serves essential, unique roles around the globe, often serving as the nation’s first line of defense far from our shores”.


Where is the nexus between the questions of the NIC and the summary of the Naval Institute? Isn’t it that who resides in the White House from 2017 to 2025 definitely will determine the major effect and governance to world affairs?

Uncertainties regarding society, economy and politics coupled to the pillars of the Navy capability, readiness and capacity are exactly the defining moment of tomorrow. Will the Leaning Empire fall?

In our present day, geopolitical imperatives prevail, East Europe represents the earth heart land, and the first chain of islands in the East and South China Sea represent the first circumference of maritime free navigation. Maneuvers in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Sweden, Finland, Xinjinag, Fardana Valley, Indian Ocean Islands, Middle East, Spratly Islands, Kuril Islands, African continent and South American Continent, all converge in the game of world dominance.

After the major world wars, the West and its secret societies (Trilateral, Bildebergers who will close their meeting in Dresden tomorrow, Free Masons etc…) managed to put forward an architecture regulating differences between sovereign nation/states, while it conspired simultaneously to concentrate wealth in the hands of few. The truth is that private assets of some citizens/corporate exceed the United States national assets in tandem to other developed economies such as China, Italy, Japan, Britain, Russia , Saudi Arabia etc..

Where few Individuals succeed in advancing their own interest in greed and assets accumulation, by controlling currencies, by coup d’état, or fomenting global disorder, driving inequality in a masquerade of higher education and dispersed sanity for all, increasing the gap between the communities and the institutions and by military expenses; central banks become instruments for devising policies that will pay off for few and deteriorate the common interests of entire collectivities.

While it is true that rising powers and nuclear powers can challenge the status quo and generate a mechanism of change that might reveal absurdly worse for the global benefit and for the cause of peace, it is also true that few western corporations went very far in the control of resources.

This is the case to elect an enlightened US president irrespective of gender, color or race, a president that will walk the walk to righting the excesses of trillions of US dollars in private assets accumulated by public quantitative easing applied by the FED, BOE, BOJ, BOC and the ECB.

From the strategic prism there is no difference between Trump, Clinton and Sanders, as they will all work for the best interest of the global geopolitical and naval environment, yet from the social prism which will affect immensely the contours of the decade ahead the difference is sharp and unbridgeable. Therefore the case is for Bernie Sanders to proceed and contest in the democratic convention in Philadelphia the nomination as per the best democratic tradition where public audiences can be the platform to redress the leaning angle of the empire.

Until the convention at Wells Fargo , Sanders needs to perfect a plan where at least 5 to 8 trillion dollars will be shifted and diverted from private assets back to public governance during a period of 7 years in order to improve the standing of the edifice of world governance.

The battle will be epic between masons pushing the leaning empire to fall and liberal progressives straightening it out and stabilizing it.

From Beirut where I stand I see the priority as an intellectual action to shift trillions back to the families as this will elevate the long term outlook of prosperity.

From Beirut I call for the unity of the Lebanese civil society behind the option of the mixed electoral draft law introduced by late Fouad Boutros within big electoral districts, as a primary step to enlist national candidates sponsored by the myriad of Lebanese protest movements and by Beirut Madinati (BM), operating under the same banner and umbrella of the Lebanese Opposition.

Ultimately it is by widening representation and perfecting democracy that aspirations can behold.

“To confront these issues, we, along with many others, have proposed possible initial steps, such as establishing a guaranteed income, the right to global citizenship, and a process of the democratic re-appropriation of the common.”

Thank You,


Open Letter to the Lebanese Civil Society in general and to Beirut Madinati in particular .

June 4, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

This is an Open Letter to the Lebanese Civil Society in general and to Beirut Madinati in particular .

“Novit paucos secura quies,qui velocis memores aevi tempora numquam reditura tenent.
Dum fata sinunt, vivite laeti. properat cursu vita citato volucrique die rota praecipitis vertitur anni;”  Known to but few is untroubled calm, and they, mindful of time’s swift flight, hold fast the days that never will return. While the fates permit, live happily; life speeds on with hurried step, and with winged days the wheel of the headlong year is turned.  “Seneca” Hercules Furens.

Along a surrounding fire in the Middle East, without doubt Lebanon is living on fate, although the wheel of the winged days may alter significantly the regional formula. Do we Lebanese have the luxury to stand idle, opening up to hospitality without recurring to infrastructure, education and to planning? Of course not, is the simplest and shortest answer.

In many months of activism and years of commitment to causes, finally the municipal elections held recently, represented a light that came out of a sudden, to shake the dead corpus of Lebanese Politicians and awaken their instincts of survival.  Where potentates of corruption, mafia don’s, non state actors and failed sectarian elite, stood fast and resisted the wind of secular change; undoubtedly the maneuver of valor emerged from beneath the civil society as a whole in its widespread mushroom independent movements. And in the brave attempt of Beirut Madinati (BM) to shake and break the political stalemate in the specifics. .

In a difficult international geopolitical environment where Job creation is relenting in advanced economies, capital outflow is increasing from the rising Asian power, and European reliance on conservative energy is changing irreversibly, one can only act to grasp every opportunity to cement the democratic stability of her/his nation/state.

We all know that Lebanese Diaspora remittances are supporting the Lebanese banking system deposits on a yearly basis, which by extension are sustaining the sovereign national debt financing. This bleak equation is servicing the labor productivity on the plate of the thieves and robbers. Profiteers of the republic will attempt to replicate the momentum, by producing a tailor made electoral law that will fit their own interest, while the novices of BM didn’t make up their mind yet if to fight back, to proceed or to stay entangled, buoyed or seized.

Where is Jad Chaaban ? Why he doesn’t appear to assume national command of the opposition and ask Indiegogo supporters to increase their financial effort by explaining the next step in state building?  indeed the contours of the electoral law are the activism new frontier.

Where is Nadine Labaki ? Why doesn’t she follow up on her beautiful commencement speech and lead the lists of Beirut in the upcoming parliament elections?

Where are the lovers and visionaries of the third republic, a reformed state for all its citizens? Let all of them focus, including agitators and non consequential “ultra-gaucheness”.

As in Singapore, Asian powers just discussed the South China Sea Affairs, NATO leaders will gather soon in June to debate European Security, a layer depending on Britain’s commitment and on zeroing refugees at their home origin.

Where the Syrian quagmire reflects a deepened international deadlock, hopefully early elections will be called for in Israel to pick up a new PM, who is a true believer in free speech even within military ranks.

But most important is that various international powers concord that Lebanon needs to approve a mixed electoral law and hold its own general elections by Mid October the latest.

This is the pledge and step that will keep expectations high and will move forward world affairs, it is in the best Lebanese interest to go on a republican transition after the general elections and elect a modern president capable with the new parliament to transform the state from an association for delinquency into a polity of education, innovation, services and representation.

“The Fates are pressing, already sight fails, the mind remains victorious, and the great work is completed.” Jean Duvet, a French goldsmith, engraver.

Thank You,


The Clock doesn’t go retro, Bismark, Breznev, Donald and Cambysses

April 29, 2016

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”  Seneca

Following the diffused video of the Anonymous group, about the presidential candidate Clinton,  another presidential candidate illustrated his foreign policy in a videotaped speech, which inconsistencies were well reported by the Guardian ,  .

One can ask to where the US global power will walk into the 21st century.  A recent article explains

that the US has a lot of accumulated advantage on the nearest challenger China, and this per se’, is symptom of the times to come.  Donald Reagan (Trump) whenever he will get elected president will open the way for an era of major military investments and a withdrawal of US multinationals to domestic shores.

If “America First” is the motto of the Atlantic upcoming, “Static China” might be the prophecy expressed by the policies of President Xi Bismarck ( Jinping) to answer the question posed by the article  . President Xi can be a mix between the proud Emperor Qinglong, the savvy Zhou Enlai and ultimately the audacious and cautious Lukashenko. He was born and he lived in a dynamic authoritarian society, and this reality coupled to his desire and instinct of modernity, can be an opportunity to stir events positively. An evolution from Chinese Communism to Chinese adapted redistribution of richness: a new political subject. June Dreyer was asking in the link below if he will stay the course,…/connecting-dots-will-xi-stay-course/

most likely yes, yet not in the literal sense of the word rather in a figurative sense. The most recent moves to clamp down on foreign companies and NGO’s, reveal the degree of ineptitude and of concern that exist in the inner circle of Xi, versus the internal political environment in China and the growing dissent. While concentration of power on the contrary to what Deng Xiao Ping professed, could reveal an asset to clean Chinese corruption standards, the danger is that it will ultimately transform the Chinese dynamism to become similar to the static Russian authoritarianism. The economist lately published an article entitled Chairman of Everything,…/21695923-his-exercise-power…
which is a sober analysis of today’s China, even if I tend to take a more patient stand versus XI. In the sense that we need to give him a dual treatment, from one side to clarify where the strategic loop is especially in the naval domain, from another to prompt neutral observation of the internal theater where the COE operates, be this on an anti craft, economic, reform oriented or simply power hungry efforts. In a nation where more than a billion, 300 million citizens cater every day needs and services, it is early to say and not yet to be seen how the maneuver exerted by the COE affects the entire edifice so far. He is basically walking in uncharted territory, discovering a new future for his country; hence he needs help to understand boundaries, limits, shape of global leadership, etc… China is an economic infant that evolved into incredible hulk in 30 years time. China through Xi requires now a firm hand that will generate security to its dreams and plans for a better connected world. A firm hand that shows Xi the way almost peacefully, and looks to the upcoming fifty years that will follow, with special attention to  human rights and to the rest of the universal attributes. Reforms including birth control policy and the ease on Hukou System are only a small portion of what is required to become as per Eric Hobsbawm  description of Bismarck “remained undisputed world champion at the game of multilateral diplomatic chess for almost twenty years after 1871, [and] devoted himself exclusively, and successfully, to maintaining peace between the powers.”

Considering that the tantrum imposition of China is to avoid becoming static, along the DNA lines of the Russian bear, as per link  it is pivotal for Russia though not to embark in new adventures, even if a recent RAND study recognizes its infantry advantage in East Europe.

The conundrum of Vladimir Breznev ( Putin) as illustrated here  is not only limited to the sphere of geopolitics but also to direct his Asian pivot somewhere  while changing the balance with the moderate factions in Moscow  into something that doesn’t degenerate into an old fashion static communism. It is obvious that the clock doesn’t go retro.

While the moves in Crimea are very worrisome,  , those in the sphere of Russian European integration are much worse, as they are limited only to energy calculation.  Russia needs to become new and neutral while modernizing its nuclear and space industries, and Vladimir Breznev needs to cease to be a god father and become a modern father to his nation.

So while NATO is planning to move two brigades East as a starter  and the cessation of hostilities in Syria is not happening, one needs to walk a two pronged policy, the summit of NATO – Russia talks reinstatement even if not effective so far, but also the Geneva opportunity.
Let us don’t stop only at…  yet move forward considering that the US of A has every interest in generating a mechanism of talks that ends with a Russian conviction to become neutral, nuclear and adopt a new state policy of grandeur on the international platform.
The Russian sophistication consists in elaborating a new role of the state within the context of its geography that stretches along a defensive line from ST PETERSBURG to Rostov. Whenever Russia will come to terms in expressing a modern state politics based on diversifying its economy, and exerting a role of pacifier in Europe and the Eurasian Plateau, then we are at an excellent dawn for humanity.
However, in the specifics and looking into the SYR-AQ Theater and after checking on several latest options…  I believe the best chances to stabilize the Levant are for Russia to open its cards with Syria in Geneva and get to the settlement of 3 states within that SYR-AQ theater. Southern Syria its capital is Damascus (with a Alawite and a Druze autonomy and minority guarantees), Southern Iraq its capital is Baghdad (with a Sciite predominance). And a Central state stretching from the outskirts of Baghdad to the outskirts of Damascus, along Mosul, Anbar, with its capital Raqqa, up to Idlib and Deir Zor, and including two Kurdish federal zones , one in ex Iraq ( Kurdistan)and another in ex Syria ( as declared in Rmeilan) . This Central State ( to be called Al Joumhouria Al Arabia Al Wosta) will have also a maritime access to the Mediterranean next to Kassab.
Let us not forget that the Mediterranean basin is a demographic plurality that needs to be transformed into a manufacturing asset. Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Iran and Turkey that represent about 200 million citizens and their joint productivity can easily be placed as GDP and nominal purchasing power, number 12 or 13 worldwide behind Mexico, Britain and Italy, if only we look at this from a geopolitical benefit eliminating radicalism, nihilism, intolerance and totalitarianism. Once this strategic conundrum is solved, then bilateral talks US/Russia can focus also on arms control, nuclear START, and on the European theater.
This can be done in respect to the new realities of hydrocarbon assets, drilling, alternative energy, gas production and else.

And here comes the role of Cambysses (Qassem) Suleimani  as a power player  capable to stir his country into an era of peace and modernity. But how far is this man from the connotations of another reformer Aref as mentioned here[English]&utm_campaign=9277f816e4-April_25_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-9277f816e4-102500041  ?

Never as before, governance rotating around strong ego characters will manage world affairs, and dilute liberties favoring militarism, and confrontation.  Fusion of civilizations  and solar energy opportunities|a5b7c7a7-f823-4cb6-a41f-fd9d1dbcf5a4&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–b9nq42PDCvKmKajRzaAq4pzTaiYJPh0rLnK1rs1goE5ahR4pcUp_ASVNw73h2L3Wrp5Z2bBsAy93HuGU18V5ARVSy0A&_hsmi=28813316  will not be sufficient, very likely, to model solutions around prioritized International challenges .

“Non est ad astra mollis e terris via” – “There is no easy way from the earth to the stars” Seneca

Thank you,

March 12 @ 16h00 , Sassine Square

March 9, 2016

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,
This is an open letter from the Lebanese Opposition to the Lebanese population resident and in the Diaspora.
A nation among the nations, Lebanon embarked since its independence in an infantile and then juvenile march towards development, yet both led for complex geopolitical landscape, immature behavior and institutional erosion to failure.
In fact today, Lebanon, developed is not.
Lebanon is utterly a sovereign nation without a recognized state, or a nation with a multiplicity of negative ramifications. From non state actors, to sectarian communities, tribes, oligarchies, corporations, mafia families, special interests groups, illicit traffickers, war lords, Feudal Beiks, Godfathers, Real-estate speculators, to being a basin for would be exported graduates. From passive bankers, to oil cartels, filibusters of monopolies, and last but not least outlaw gangsters.
Murky and muddy, the corrupt Lebanese community of politicians has a strong belief that perception is more important than reality, hence they tend to portray a status-quo of infamy, of deceit and social derailment, incapable as they are to alter the equation into a modern state, reformed and projected to well being of the collective citizenry.
Lebanon is a bankrupt and careless state where community services are nonexistent and the needy are a have not category of citizens. Allegiance is for foreign powers and the brave people are called upon by sophomoric gangsters in charge of ministries, and benefiting from an illegitimate extension to Occupy Nijmeh Square without delivering a president since almost two years of vacuum.
Members of parliament last year met in plenary sessions to approve laws for the interest of international corporations, failing to cater for the national interest. Lately a president of a party selectively reduced his proposed decrees to adultery, while a draft to propose the independent monitoring agency for municipal elections was exempted from the interest of the same young political “revolutionary”.
In the same token a minister of tourism went on all fury to call reserved rights for a video tackling the image of Lebanon, as one of the protest movements, nuanced the trash as a top priority. This same minister should better attend on the front lines, the protest action of March 12 and show some national sensibility.
Surprised as we are by the political choices of Saad Hariri, we barely manage to monitor his travels and to account for these, in a modern “ Rihla” . This guy is much like Ibn Battuta , ultimately he represents a variant , a traveler for spices , presidential candidates and outstanding salaries at Saudi Ogero and Future TV.
The counterweight of Hariri in Lebanon is a bearded Seyyed, having the last word in resistance matters, where his ideology tops Yemeni sacrifices as unequaled, while Syrian ones determined also by his strategy are minimized. Hassan Nasrallah should better come to terms with the republic constitutional reforms as explained plainly in an open letter I already sent him. Let us revisit and re-brand the Lebanese republic, the third republic is in waiting.
Along the present misogyny, where Lebanon is ranked in the bottom of nations with respect to women, there is a major need to reshuffle this mammoth and colossal state of denial.
Political parties such as the FPM, are calculating their steps to finalize the standing versus the cabinet, while the road to salvation is one, let us go to elections, municipal and general, under independent monitoring, let us elect a president for a transition period and let us approve a mixed electoral law that permits changes to emerge from beneath the corrupt system to introduce much needed reforms. Let us collect our waste within the logic of the waste hierarchy and the zero waste science, let us impede filibusters from exploiting the last line of defense of the civil society. Let us stop the charade of buffoons a’ la minister Z3aiter and minister Azzi, and the clowns of the Mahnouk’s parody, caricature and burlesque.
Regional alarm bells are twitting the Lebanese republic and unless we act now, we most likely will see ourselves absorbed and morphed into a new geographic entity.
This is a call for action on March 12, entailing also the Prime Minister who is caressing the idea of resignation or Se-rail emptiness, while he should instead join the front line of the protest and press the corrupt elite to speak up the solution immediately.
Dear compatriots be numerous starting from Sassine Square, and affirm your national rights, be above all what you are, a Lebanese people with a soul, a nation with a state.
This is also a public call to the Lebanese Army to protect the whole itinerary on March 12 starting from 15h45, up to Riad Solh Square and be the vigil eye that will nurture all daughters and sons of the republic.
See you all soon,
Thank you,

Open Letter to the General Secretary of Hezbollah

February 23, 2016

Dear Reader,
This is an Open letter to General Secretary of Hezbollah
Dear Secretary General,
“Do not let your difficulties fill you with anxiety, after all it is only in the darkest nights that stars shine more brightly.”. Imam Ali ( saaws)
In what follows, and being both of us from the same age generation, I will address you as an eminence intended as intelligence and not as a persona or a chair, hence I will call you Hassan.
Dear Hassan,
Visitors to Lebanon immediately notice the institutional conundrum and crisis that the nation/state is living in. It is about a waste mismanagement and about a political derailment of the collective society.
One need not to be an expert to realize how complex are regional issues reflecting on the tiny land laying on the shores of the Mediterranean this amount of pressure on its tissue and fabric.
Experts and observers might think or be induced in their analysis to emphasize the endorsement of the candidacies of MP. Aoun or MP. Franjieh, as a political dissolution of March 14 and a victory to March 8, but this is partially correct if not entirely wrong. In truth it is Lebanon as an entity that is suffering the stalemate and the lose-lose formula, where even candidates from the same side erase the chances of one another, being both caught between a rock (past failures and the future of Lebanon ) and a hard place ( oil and gas interests).
We all know how to make an omelet from an egg but we ignore how to reverse the process, and in front of the presidential vacuum and the parliamentary illegitimacy one needs to think where the Lebanese constitutional edifice future is?
In the first republic created by colonial France, unlimited powers were concentrated in the executive office of the president; by contrast the second republic sponsored chiefly by Saudi Arabia reduced these powers and transferred much of these to the office of the prime minister. In both republics checks and balances were erased, corruption was rampant, regional agendas superseded the citizen needs and alternative social subsidizing was delivered by non state actors. Considering where we stand today, we can easily affirm that there is no way back to both republics and that what we mostly need is to embrace a new logic and innovative reform which guarantees all players.
As you know the state is almost absent and major issues such as defense and foreign affairs are subject to national divergences. It’s geopolitics you will shortly and promptly reply and nuance and I agree.
The logic of The Lebanese Opposition as stated in the strategic white paper in the following link implies that the geopolitics of the nation/state needs to be oriented to the future, the regional context.

In an effort to keep an intellectual upper hand in the events surrounding Lebanon and in order to avoid any repercussions deriving from the provisional plan between major International powers ( USA & RUSSIA) already announced, and shortly to be applied in the neighboring theater of Syria, I vividly invite you to reflect on the constitutional options in Lebanon.
If it is true that we can’t go back to the first and second republic in Lebanon, it is also true that the third republic in still undefined in its form.
And here are my two pennies. I propose that a transitional phase of one year be the key element of change. A neutral president (preferably a lady from the civil society, Mrs Nadine Moussa) will be elected for one year and afterwards immediately a neutral cabinet of six will be endorsed by the parliament albeit illegitimate, to do the following : form and call on the encompassing national council to convene and negotiate national reforms. The first reform will caress stability and will create the post of vice president of the republic that will be elected in a presidential ticket with the president of the republic by the people directly in a universal suffrage. This post of vice president, will be allotted to a Shiite, considering the Lebanese special formula of coexistence and delicate stratum formation by different sects, creeds, and faiths that unfortunately replace the secular breath, which needs to be essential in any modern state. But politics is also the art of the possible. The president and the vice in tandem will have the joint power to call for general elections and dissolve the parliament, if a schism impedes the parliament from moving forward. And the duo can jointly exert veto on draft legislation approved by the parliament and the cabinet in case of national interest. This joint power will create equilibrium and balance; it will help the executive and legislative branches to have more thoughtfulness and creativity rendered to the populace. The mandate will be for 4 years, renewable only once.
The PM will be Sunni and will keep his office powers intact as they are, with the difference of supervision by the presidential duo on the laws emanated by the cabinet by vetoing these.
The Speaker will be orthodox and can have only two consecutive mandates, a senate will be created of 28 members presided by a Druze for a maximum of two mandates of 4 years each also. The number of Laws needs to be reduced, and bicameral approval is required for laws to become effective.
The electoral law for the general elections for both chambers will be the one proposed by late Fouad Boutros, with all the metrics and regulations for spending, for eligibility, and for the candidates profiling. An independent commission will be monitoring also the municipal elections of course; that we all hope will be held on time.
A Catholic will be the Director of the General Security and a Maronite the army commander with objective to form a powerful army, a Sunni will lead the ISF. A special division called National Guard grouping the resistance brigades in it, will be formed and detached to the Republican Palace joint to the republican guard and it will be under a Shiite commander who will be part of the military council.

وَالَّذِينَ اهْتَدَوْا زَادَهُمْ هُدًى وَآتَاهُمْ تَقْواهُمْ  ”                 سورة محمد      47/17 ”

Dear Hassan,
We most need to move forward and to tackle issues related to education, literacy, refugees, economy, social welfare, juvenile labor, defense, strategy, environmental emergency, health care and so on. So we need a major political breakthrough.
Shall I talk about the connection with the beloved civilization of the Iranian Peoples? You know very well that in 3 days, elections will take place, in the Islamic Republic and there is a call by opposition Leaders to vote en-masse and deflect the radicals of JYM ( Jannati , Mohammad Yazdi and Mesbah Yazdi ) . So how will Lebanese specificity be affected?
It is time that we cross the lines of immobility and walk our regional way to peace with Judaism reformists also.
“Jewish states may rise and fall, as they have risen and fallen in the past, but the people of Israel will continue to minister at the altar of the Most High God in all the lands in which they dwell” A reform rabbi affirmed.
Decrying the growth of fascist tendencies must be the common battle of all faiths and creeds for the best interest of Humanity.
A regional hub of many millions of citizens, is already here to host all of us in peace where we can instate our services, export our products , create our energy auto sufficiency, project justice to the Palestinian and Israeli states and durable , long lasting horizons for many generations to come in the Levant confederation of territories.
Finally as you said in one of your speeches; Lebanon is caught in a cycle of threats. And it is our duty to be strong and capable of defending our country.
Illuminated Reform of the government, and regional synchronous as explained in my open letter,together to the waste management hierarchy as illustrated by environment experts, by the civil society and endorsed by the industrial association, and to the economic recovery , to the republican military capability, and to the regional peaceful hub creation are the best defense.

“Directors make people advance in perfection by performing a great number of acts of virtue, but my Director, who is Jesus Himself, teaches me to do everything through love. … I know now that true charity consists in bearing all our neighbors’ defects–not being surprised at their weakness, but edified at their smallest virtues.” Therese de Lisieux.

Thank you