Thucydides Relief, An elegant Foreign Policy: Ready Power Balancing Humanism.
Observers and analysts spent much time describing the first decade of the 21st century, and tried to forecast scenarios for the upcoming years 2030, 2050 and beyond. What remains a constant in global affairs however, is the geographic fortune of the US having an excellent network of rivers and a wonderful location in between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Stretched as it is in between great neighbors, Canada and Mexico , allied also with major European powers, UK, Germany , France , trading at ease with Japan and China, fracking new oil wells , structuring artificial intelligence, renovating services by Uber and reusable rockets, the US is undoubtedly much ingrained in the global tissue, that no retraction can change the actual ramifications.
An encompassing forecast at Stratfor.com for 2017 elaborates regarding the upcoming, yet it is paramount to realize at first where the first priority in times of major instability stands. Europe will witness political torrents, China will struggle to regain its economic export relevance and Russia will disseminate divisions to reinstate a forever lost soviet grandeur.
Designing a new US military , by expanding the Navy a little, empowering the army a little, allotting the air force with capabilities of networks and setting the course for unmanned assets in the seas, in the skies, on land and in space are all tools needed to generate readiness.
More than hard power coined by classic military thinkers , soft power coined by Joseph Nye and rising power coined by historians, ready power is the modern concept of balancing in the post globalization era. In truth we can register wide climate change issues, deflation and lost decades in economy. As much as bad loans pervasiveness and the loss of the spirit of sacrifice in human nature. There are conflict between states, non states and entities which increase the general concern, and augment the need for a wise international prevention and monitoring. Within the concert of the nation’s only a ready power interacting with all players and balancing the input and output of power in all its facets, can act to favor a world peaceful pattern. Together to the post global modern values, the evolution of species and the micro management of local crisis. It is no secret that natural disasters and humanitarian aid necessary for populations under strain, are much present in our times. And efforts need also to concentrate on these, coupled to promoting jobs for humans and robots jointly. Considering the demographics of the world, it is thought that in few years 10 billion inhabitants will be an easy number to set strategies of consumption, and sales for international corporations. Universal products and services will be the new frontier in technology. Rethinking urban-ism and greenness will be primary for the citizenry, while learning and inventions will shake literature and arts completely.
A ready power will be the center of magical realism, in other words, the appropriate mix between, setting attack submarines together to gold medal athletes and synchronizing robots dynamics coupled to projecting aid to distressed communities. It is a building of laws that understands Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, and other naval strategists such as Mahan, and always acts with attentiveness to equilibrium. It maintains freedoms and is a custodian of synergy in diverging interests; it exerts powerful mediation and projects wisdom and displays harmony.
Strength is there, evident, clear, in tentacles that go from economy to social solidarity, from military to deployments worldwide, from new energy and wind technicians to chef robots.
US TRUMP MANDATE
“From yesterday’s man to tomorrow’s liberal leader, wise and just are the markers for a ready power in balancing cultural humanism.”
In terms of priorities, the president of the US needs to select the best option to enlarge the military most likely by endorsing the CNAS plan and trying to match budget resources until 2025. The CNAS Plan is very close to the vision of readiness and balancing, although it should develop further details about R&D such as the sixth generation avionics, and the third offset. It needs to reduce more in nuclear armaments, and to increase the funds for civil military joint operations dedicated to humanitarian aid, and natural disasters, based on the Unity of Mission vision. Focus on Cyber swarm torpedoes, unmanned and fully reusable space planes to provide “aircraft-like access” to space, and laser mastery will be the edge of the art .
Secondly, the President needs to raise his popularity , by a vision based on development of trade and of the global economy in a way that the liberal order recollects its center at the heart of the western hemisphere. The liberal world is indeed based on freedoms and laws.
Starting with arbitration, reconciliation, International law and trade, all tutored and defended by appropriate choices made by a ready power in the decades to come.
While it is thought and understood that the geographic center of the liberal world is shifting, from being based on a western alliance exclusively to evolving into a more diverse belt of international citizens. It is also thought that these citizens might not represent per se’ a majority in one country but they have a lot of importance in terms of handling current and daily affairs in many countries.
The idea is to create a Trump startup fund. This goes along the universal pay for citizens, with a difference though, instead of paying citizens , you fund leisure and non robot, start up enterprises, by extending two years tax cuts, grants and loans, and these will bring benefits to taxes and employment on the long run.
Considering that leisure will be the major non robot industry, senior to senior activities, junior to senior ones and junior to junior will necessitate local transportation and logistics, regional and national. Hence creative infrastructure evolution will support the idea of a senior community in Texas interacting with another in Florida, who is brought together through a youth federation from New Orleans, for instance.
Raising his popularity with projects that stimulate social connectivity is paramount for President Trump to achieve the objective of ready power, balancing humanism.
But there is also another aspect that we need to consider and that is arm sales, artificial intelligence, new energy and new communications ( Trump Chips),
all sectors that will inevitably contribute to the economy at large, although primarily they will empower corporate interests. There is also another factor to take into consideration, and that is in December 2016 US consumer spending reached its highest level ever, and this is a great tool for the economy to continue its development on average of 3 % annual. Personal savings, Gasoline Prices and household debt to GDP represent an excellent mix to date http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-st…/consumer-spending.
Therefore this reinforces the vision that what you need is new leisure non robotic products for sure, small buses with entertainment on board, holiday breaks of brief duration with holistic outcomes, training for seniors and youngsters on social programs, high quality early child hood policy https://www.brookings.edu/…/memo-building-a-cohesive-high…/… etc…. .
At this stage after the exit from the 2008 major crisis, technology development and a young brand of advances in the industry, will allocate to robots a major intake in production for agriculture, construction and other sectors.
This opportunity will change the center of liberalism and alter the demographics on the world stage, so while I Phone’s and FROZEN are part of the US power, the most important part of it will remain the international institutions. So the way forward is to strengthen laws for copyright and for free trade, while adding up a system of systems in communication that enables a new generation of users/citizens.
Once you have a ready power, you operate balancing that fits humanism, and invest in research to create the young brand of systems, DARPA Young and the Trump Chips. And ultimately you open up immigration to foreign nationals from India and China, for modern Mandarin to become a second language as Spanish in the US.
While this creativity will bring back the center of liberalism to the west, as it will shift perceptions and introduce immigration policies, paving the way for a mix of different nationals to be absorbed in the local US tissue once and again. We should never forget that more than 3000 counties that voted the president contributed in less than 30 % of the GDP.
Henceforth it is pivotal for a ready power, to balance humanism, by relying on young technology to advance the legal international framework, by expanding trade and connections, on Swarms of unmanned vehicles to protect the land, the air, the space and the seas, and ultimately widening the center of the liberal order will re-position the west at its heart again.
EUROPE AND THE US
In 2017 the year of elections will take place in at least 3 major European countries, where the worst case scenario assumes, that two out of three (excluding Germany) will be lost to far right movements. Unstable Europe will emerge and quid pro quo will be the rule of the day. A return to the age of empires, emissaries, courtesans, Esfandiari’s (Magicians and poker players) & co is the nightmare for trade, rules, negotiations and institutions at large. A US bird view would very much recommend to sustain , nourish, evolve and entertain relations in the Pacific and the eastern/southern hemisphere, with China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia, Srilanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Madagascar , Bangladesh and Pakistan, to counterbalance seismic social European populism motto “ Foreigners out” .
However the temptation is big, the Atlantic alliance needs to struggle its way out of the crisis not only by shifting preposition-ed resources to Baltic States, but mainly by re-positioning the liberal heart to the west for the upcoming decades.
CHINA AND THE US
As deal makers will be looking into opening salvos to get better conditions with China or at least influence the Chinese maneuver on international stage, the constant will always be that Chinese trade with the US is the fact that no one can escape. While China is the major US partner in all accounts, it added 6.5 percent to its economy in 2016 (more or less the Netherlands GDP about 760 billion) and will almost have the same increment in 2017 (similar to the GDP of Switzerland about 655 billion). For the record US defense spending in 2016 is US Dollars 622 billion, and therefore we can say that the Chinese GDP growth is impressive even if based on the evolution to internal market consumption.
In truth the US need to release and relief Thucydides from his own intellectual and historic trap, as a gesture to foment hope and to elaborate grand strategy. In looking around us, we understand that there are several factors that determine reflection and attentiveness in and on Chinese policy making: the fertility rate, the debt / GDP ratio, the nuclear capability, the internal Chinese equilibrium and the US treasuries holdings second after JAPAN in the latest figures. But above all we need to breakdown the Chinese trade into 4 pieces, 1) trade with the US, 2) with other Western oriented nations or groups of nations ,Japan/Australia/New Zealand/Europe/Canada and India, 3) Chinese domestic trade, 4) and trade with the rest including Africa , Russia, south America / Philippines/Singapore, Pakistan etc..
Therefore how the 4 pieces will move will be a remarkable setting for observation, it is similar to communicating vases. Beside, President Xi Jinping will have his upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress to nominate the next generation of leaders, while president Trump will accompany this group of new Chinese leaders into 2025 easily (if re-elected without committing major mistakes in foreign policy), concomitant with the US crossing of the threshold of ready power, considering that the latest US Naval Institute projection sets at 355 ships.
There will be no US/Sino confrontation, rather some ups and downs within a qualitative shift from the YUAN EMBRACE & the UMBRELLA BENEFITS https://thinkingdice.wordpress.com/…/the-yuan-embrace-and-…/
to the YUAN BENEFITS & the UMBRELLA EMBRACE, where the US will reaffirm its presence in the South Chinese Sea significantly, while keeping all trade cooperation in place. It is a fact that in standing firm on the first chain of islands, and developing corridors of safety to erase the anti-access, area denial tactics connected through land / air batteries built on Chinese features in the South China Sea and on inland China, the US will have designed a constant.
Let us never forget that the deployment of THAAD in South Korea will help reopen channels of negotiations with North Korea and a new deal can be rethought for the nuclear reactor to shut down partially or for its activity to be managed under IAEA monitoring. Chinese help will be enlisted and a new era on the Korean peninsula can be looked at.
By contrast whenever President Xi Jinping will reduce his team’s growth therapy to economic factors, and mainly in replacing the actual PM, the common sense implicates that this policy will not yield. There is need to give more vocal visibility to social private voices, through acquiring legal representation, this will enable private owned companies to have more margin to access credit. Therefore the step in reforming the system is to start by local municipal representation. Pilot cities such as Chengdu can act as engine for local municipal representation and consequently larger private access to credit. Subsequently partially and gradually ceasing the Hukou household registry by allowing rights to vote in resident cities, will set the dynamics for real Chinese change. The USA, need to act on a triad, with China rather than on trade only. The triad consists of, forming an elastic southern economic/ manufacturing and social belt to counterbalance excessive Chinese nationalism, in countries like Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Srilanka and Thailand. Secondly implement the discreet FONOP’s on a strategic level, part of a continuum display of resources , irrespective of shifting circumstances in geopolitics, while delegating some security issues in the seas to allies such as Japan, Australia, UK and others in a proactive layer , that builds on current practices. But most importantly is three, in the Trinity, or triad, which is directed to people and investment, to pave the way for future areas of cooperation. Likely the introduction to the state department lottery program and major US universities, of an allocation for Chinese nationals only, based on a policy to include at least two million of them and families; on an eight year time frame in the American productive tissue. This will lead to a Pinyin version of the STATE DEPARTMENT website and leading presumably and eventually to the inclusion of Mandarin as a second language in The US au pair with Spanish.
President Xi need not to wait for the congress of 2017 considered the true turning point, yet he can already act to stimulate growth by creating incentives for foreign tourists to visit China and foreign nationals to establish their own individual tax free companies (48 months duration) with up to eight employees.
In this context the One China policy is irrelevant as such, but on paper, more important is the end result and peace will reign between the TWO BIGGEST POWERS of the 21st CENTURY divided by the largest neutral declining landmass ( RUSSIA) no matter what.
RUSSIA AND THE US
For the record the Russian GDP in 2015 was 1327 billion, equivalent to China’s rise in 2016 and 2017. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
Although we might be keen to elaborate thesis and perspectives, in terms of grand strategy and hard power as links below suggest:
Or to register advice from very old foxes such as Kissinger, elaborated by his British pen Niall Ferguson, we need to realize that letting the Russian bear stay his course and sending him a clear message of non belligerence is an excellent tool.
Needless to say that Russia’s role in the Middle East is most welcome in terms of spreading freedoms and justice to the Syrian people so badly suffering. Ultimately and eventually seeking a political solution can’t escape the fact that a fractured Syria will not be reunited unless transition is enacted, a new power sharing is instated and the new Syrian led political equilibrium approved by consent. Russian ties to blood will reflect badly on its international neutral status. In managing the Russian decline, President Putin better set his succession, and steer a power control from a far, leading to a nuclear and neutral RUSSIA. Astana talks are an opportunity for further negotiations to cement the idea of a political solution, and it needs to widen the participation to other partners, such as the EU, in the context of the UNSC resolution 2254 and the International Syria Support Croup (ISSG).
Taking possess of the Syrian file will reveal to be a heavy burden for Putin, but if the cease fire declared from midnight today will hold, this can be a good opening.
The REX TILLERSON deal can be to lease Crimea to Russia for 20 years, on renewable basis, always if natural TATAR rights will be respected in full.
Secondly it will respect the Ukrainian sovereignty totally, where Minsk agreements will be finalized under Ukrainian territorial integrity, and recognized semi-autonomous administration to eastern Donbas.
Third is to recognize an exclave to Moscow in Tartous similar to Kaliningrad.
Outsourcing to Russia, the handling of the Syrian file will ultimately lead not only to a truce, but also to humanitarian corridors, political transition, a new constitution, new power sharing, general elections, and a new national president.
A ring of stable nations will grant this REX deal, Finland, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Belarus and Armenia.Russia will have its own commercial deals in the 5 stan’s, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan.
A new reduction in nuclear armament will be negotiated to secure the full control and security of 100 per cent of nuclear resources and weapons.
In exchange for all this, US technology will support Russian neutrality to prosper its economy and diversify it. The objective is to reach a woman/birth ratio of 1.9 and a growth of 5 % annually. Putin requires handling his own succession though, and all nations will be happy to help. Better relations with Russia, will render visible the deal of managing the Russian decline which by no mean will cede territory or alter its geographic actual area. Eventually also the EXXON MOBILE / ROSNEFT Arctic rigs will resume exploration.
The Russian question will be solved.
MIDDLE EAST and the US
Just to add some Middle Eastern Sumac to the existing Tabouleh complexity, we need to note that there are three US constants.
A business like relation with Iran, based on developing agriculture cooperation, which will lead per se’ to a better environment in at least 3 theaters, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Hopefully immediately after the Boeing deal, other US companies will follow with machines for agriculture to develop the biggest project for world nutrition in the Iranian land mass comprised between the chains of its mountains. Think of a young brand of wheat to make Indian bread, and a special farming to export chicken for the Chinese market. Ultimately Iranian workers will be part of the liberal world based on trade and laws.
Persian “Deutorostomia “, will cultivate on its lands with US machinery, crops for India and chicken farms to China. Science and reason, versus cultural walls and closed borders, long term yet very necessary.
Then the constant of improving relations between Israel from one side and the Gulf Countries and Turkey from another side, which will lead to an easy resolution of the Arab Israeli conflict represented by the focal issue of Palestine.
More important the third constant will be to deploy heavy legal lifts to exploit Lebanese gas and oil offshore and inland, following the example of the KRG http://mnr.krg.org/…/KRG_Model_PSC_production_sharing_contr…
Arming the Lebanese democracy coupled to the opportunity of the upcoming general elections will be great to relax the Iranian proxy Hezbollah and its mantra of Consociational democracy or in Arabic .الديمقراطية التوافقية
Therefore it is of high priority to include also military aid, consisting of training and equipment with ammunition and systems capable to strengthen the overall C4SIR and Networks in Lebanon.
In the specifics Lebanon needs 3 more battalions, 2 infantry and one marine, in terms of troops and also weaponry such as A10, F4, from the old US arsenal, frigates and Strykers. Also it needs items such as communications equipment, small arms, and replacement parts for hardware and coastal radar for maritime and inland security.
It is paramount to realize that only a strong Lebanese army, structured on scientific and modern terms can generate stability and a climate of amenity.
For this purpose a conference to modernize the Lebanese army structure is very much on demand, this will empower Lebanese positions versus the bipartisan support in the congress and in the Pentagon and the State Department, and the Intelligence community.
In view of above, supporting the idea of the Lebanese president to nominate ten new members of parliament as additional quota to the upcoming electoral law is pivotal to confer dynamism of Lebanese lobbying by making sense of its pervasive Diaspora. This is about national interests and state security.
The accurate mix of the three tracks will lead to modern success in the Middle East , and enable resources to be dedicated at will in the South china Sea and with China the super partner and the true intellectual balancing forward.
APPEASEMENT and the US
There are two world candidates for appeasement on a strategic level and these are the Islamic Republic of Iran and the North Korean Republic.
The nuclear deal with Iran already delivered an accord with Boeing and Airbus, and this is the essence, economic reach and Geo-strategic improvement role for the Iranians (very visible in Lebanon although in need of a better positioning, to culminate in the absorption of non state actors in the army units). This is not against the interests of anyone; rather it should be explained to all opponents. Even if these opponents, are war mongers or stubborn chancellors riding a pedestal of ambivalence, impunity, arrogance and intellectual deafness.
Remember always that a core issue to the Iranian cause is the fact that Palestine is an independent state, no matter what the extreme Israeli right does.
Hence there is no need to seek more complexity on a geopolitical platform, with an outcome which is destabilizing at best. A polyp is a creature with a big head yet with much articulated complexity.
By reaching out to North Korea, with watermelon and candies, the US will have signed two points, the revival of the Agreed Framework between the United States of America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as negotiating frame, and also balancing in the FAR EAST.
By improving economic relations and building on the latest Kurili Islands agreements (Russo/Japanese) and the corridor from Kashgar to Gwadar (Sino/Pakistani), you can reach out to nuclear disarmament in Pyongyang.
FAR EAST – INDIAN OCEAN and the US
Exploiting Iranian relations will reassess the southern belt in a new outlook , based on a connected ring of nations, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippine, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran , Australia, New Zealand, call it a belt for laws . Undoubtedly the Indian growth will be substantial, for manufacturing competition with the Chinese to generate dynamics in trade development and catering new products for the world inhabitants. This vision will relax the Afghan theater and liberate NATO resources from being boxed in and sandwiched in a Russo/Iranian bite.
ECONOMY and the US
A conservative forecast for 2017 is that DOW will reach 20800, but in June there will be a correction due to unforeseen events. Then again from October onward markets will pick up, to rise again. Average stocks gain will be 5 to 7 %. A joint venture can be started between Wall Street and the Shanghai stock market to operate a special index, call it Shanghai wall, minimum 20 K shares per moved transaction and companies listed will be above 350 million US dollars capitalization. Shanghai wall will finance projects in space and in the Arctic navigation. A signature project will be to finance the coastal highway in Lebanon, a loan on equal shares from the World Bank and the AIIB.
Global Terror and the US
Resolving the conflict in Iraq and Syria will be clue for terror to be sedated, yet this needs international understanding that tribes, clans, communities, have rights to determine their own fate when controlling sustainable means. This will be a long struggle.
SOUTH AMERICA – AFRICA and the US
Africa rivets a major importance in terms of development, and the South American Continent also . There should be a cooperation in terms of special labor projects and first res-ponders for humanitarian crisis.
Let us imagine a design that can represent three categories of states.
Liberal states in the world, CANADA, USA, EUROPE, INDIA, JAPAN, MEXICO, UKRAINE, BALTIC’S, NORTH EUROPE, POLAND, SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTH AFRICA, INDONESIA, Philippine, BANGLADESH , who are averaging almost 2 billion inhabitants.
Illiberal states such as China, Russia, and the 5 Stan’s, Belarus, THAILAND, MALDIVES, KSA & Gulf countries, averaging also 2 billion inhabitants.
And the third category which includes all the rest : failed, chaotic, third world, poor, discriminate, nuclear, pre-nuclear, post conflict, etc,,, (Venezuela , Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, Syria, VIETNAM, BURMA, COLOMBIA, SINGAPORE, NEPAL, Palestine, ISRAEL, LEBANON, KUWAIT, LIBYA,AFGHANISTAN, Djibouti, etc…) averaging the rest of inhabitants.
The shape that can represent these is a pyramid, divided into 3 parts interacting, where the base is made of the rest of states, some of them having ramifications in the middle part and the upper part ( PAKISTAN, ISRAEL, THAILAND, SINGAPORE, LEBANON.. ) . The same goes for the middle part where tentacles reach bottom in illiteracy and up in learning. And the upper part of the pyramid where less developed, under developed, ill developed, or obsolete components go down to both levels middle and basic.
Now the middle part made out of China coupling Leninism and capitalism, and Russia where democratic values are vying their way to defeat the Majar mafia model prevailing in Moscow, is not a threat per se’ to the liberal portion, rather it is a color minutia in the equation of pyramidal power.
Ready power balancing humanism, will always need to calibrate its leadership, upper positioning projected in safeguarding an alliance system of defense, R&D, technology, infrastructure and global networking in the upper level. It will exert leadership by cool awareness of multicultural diversity and continuous evolution of diplomacy. A ready power, balancing humanism, will rely on young technology to advance the legal international framework as the best post global deal.
While it will require out of necessity to deploy resources to the pyramidal basement in order to keep the equilibrium tight, of the entire mechanism, it has to penetrate the middle level periodically.
There will never be a time where all countries will have the same concept, languages, values, regulations, symptoms, speed, demographics, attitude, artistic output, but there is a pattern where optimism is prevailing and this is comforting,
Perception and high expectation must not alter the veracity of the truth; we live in multi-ethnic societies, where racial homogeneity is desired but never attained.
Human nature will endure internecine fighting but will lessen this violence increasingly.
For that end the liberal system, will pursue its march and glue the rest of the areas in a geopolitical plain of economic / resources amenity disturbed by several eruptions &, chaotic conflicts, yet entertained by Lutes, Ouds and mandolins.
All different, yet all equal in destiny. Happy 2017.