The First Warning to Lebanon

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good Day,

This is an open letter to the Lebanese Population Resident and Abroad,

Through the centuries and along more than two millenniums, since the inception of the cities along the Eastern Mediterranean shores; extremely rich achievements were conducted to pave the way for exchange and trade. Maritime pioneers relocated and waves of human resources roamed the planet, to invest in labor and to build projects and new cities worldwide.

Cedrus Libani established a code of conduct and honor since King Solomon, and was the direct cause that helped on the first historic outsourcing of labor.

It is no secret that Lebanese descendant communities had a major role in governance in Latin American countries, in development in African countries, in advisory research in North America, in networking and management in Arab Countries and in community based enhancement in Australia.

Lebanese pupils are great assets abroad, but lack totally in house. It is also evident that mismanagement, embezzlement, corruption, failure and decay characterize the consequent governments of Lebanon since its declared independence and its first two republics witnessed so far. The rule of law became a deceitful rule of killers, assassins and corrupt mafia men.

Molder is rampant and pervasive, the Lebanese fundamentals are decomposed from beneath, trash is all over, presidential vacuum is sitting undisturbed and public indebtedness is exponentially multiplying. Masculinity as norm, thought to deliver through muscles a command of the day, while all ruses are used to ill advice the citizen. The latest coup in an interminable series is the effort of the minister of agriculture to sell us the trash export at the higher cost USD 200 per ton, as the only option available. By default this will make us lose thousands of jobs in recycling and applying the zero waste hierarchy . Shame on Akram Shehayeb and on his crony master Walid Jumblat.

Much virtual ink was consumed to depict the sad reality, yet no cure is on the horizon.

Maneuvers, simmer, portrayal are on the hook, however without any consequential ending.  Oh Dear Lebanon!

While Finland and Switzerland will soon distribute cash money to every adult citizen to boost their economy and lessen the state expenditure,

Iceland also was very innovative and boarded the wagon, in introducing a financial novelty where the state will entitle the citizenry with part of the Banks shares.

From another side, Chinese consumers are showing interest in well being, while inequality is increasing the level of poverty in the US, and it is a commonly accepted fact that Indian literacy rate, while improving is still considered relatively low.

On the other hand it is comforting to notice that some Syrian refugees were well received in a land of freedom, Canada; and another minor part of them regained their original homes after obligatory relocation.

Almost one week ago COP21 just ended its works and pledges are made to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and Lebanon isn’t even thinking to start-up Wind Turbines in Akkar Plain, Solar Panels in Bekaa Valley, or Trash converted to Energy in Marjayoun Plain, leave alone the initiation of exploration and extraction of gas and oil in its likely offshore fields.

LCPS is following up on this as per link http://www.lcps-lebanon.org/featuredArticle.php?id=61 .

Perhaps Lebanese politicians should recur to the tactic used in Paris climate talks, where participants stood in a circle one facing the other, and talking frankly their thoughts to reach a culmination agreement.

Known to be the nation that misses all geopolitical chances, Lebanon governed by an incompetent and obtuse political elite or mafia in power, unhindered, is irrepressible to move forward.

Yet once again, fate magnanimity gives Lebanon a new chance to act and this is due to three reasons mainly, the low price of commodities ( Oil and Gold )in international markets, the likely success of talks to end the Syrian quagmire, the economic foreseen instability in 2016 of 4 major regional powers KSA, IRAN, TURKEY and ISRAEL.

This time the window dresses up an opening until end of April 2016, to elect a President for a one year transition, approve a modern electoral law in all its facets, implement municipal elections, assign the dates for general elections, approve a legal debt ceiling, make good use of military aid and build on this to secure the land and reinforce the intelligence community instead of distorting its mission by pursuing innocent activists. Finally forgo the second republic in a fine tuning of the constitution to upgrade into the Third Republic.

If it is true that in some Lebanese schools Syrian students exceed 600 or even 700 students, which is by itself a great sign of Lebanese capability, it is also true that the political deadlock is impeding any achievement beyond social.

Therefore the international chancelleries will dose a patient stand with the local elite for a short time still, and the demand is clear, elect a transition president to implement tangible and immediate institutional reforms or else perish in an annihilating conflict that will transfer to the Lebanese Arena all the contradictions existing in the nearby theater of Syria.

Obviously it is not about electing “Il Capo Dei Capi ” , who will reaffirm the rule of the feudal yoke , militiamen and warlords ; rather it will be the election of a president who will pave the way for a true solution to be sponsored and mentored by all players from local, regional to international.

By alphabetical order I can see great chances for a compromise president who can be either Nadine Moussa (Presidential candidate with vision,  lawyer and activist) , Shamel Roukoz ( ex SF commander with integrity) or Youssef el Khal (veteran actor and political thinker beginner). In all cases it is not about the candidate but about the agenda.

Oh Lebanon, Don’t miss this window, as it is your first warning to avoid descending in total chaos and international oblivion. Let peace replicate itself and endure or else disorder will dissolve Beirut in a decade of tumult until a new country is made out of dust.

Wish all friends and allies of Lebanon, the non Lebanese residents in the hospitable land of Lebanon and all Lebanese citizens and descendants living in Lebanon or in the Diaspora, a very prosperous 2016.

A special dedication to those who trust me and rely on my instinct and core analysis to interpret the effects of the multilateral foreign affairs on Lebanon, to regulate the regional pace, and eventually to set the International mood.

Thank You,