Open letter to Michel Aoun


Open letter to Michel Aoun

Dear Reader,
Greetings and Good Day,

“The doorstep to the temple of wisdom is a knowledge of our own ignorance” Benjamin Franklin

Assuming that the period starting today and ending on June 20 will have no significant initiatives in the Lebanese political field, one must think how to invest this time.
Considering where the Lebanese national interest stands, I tend to say that the idea of Michel Aoun about a trinity is not bad after all, if we look at it from a prism of evolving the understanding between FPM and Hezbollah.
This is a unique opportunity for Lebanon to amplify internal convergence, but how can Lebanon benefit from this? So far it is clear that the dilemma of Michel Aoun is that he knows he will be the president maker but not the president. The question is will Aoun be more powerful being a president without powers or by indicating, adopting and sponsoring a president coupled to setting a written framework of internal understanding?.
We all know that all agreements outside Lebanon like Taef and Doha had a bad constitutional shape, so for once we have a way to shape our republic.
Michel Aoun can trade the following written agreement with Hezbollah and the Future 1) a constitutional revision of the three main powers in the country, the president can call once general elections, the speaker can have the same post for maximum 3 times; the PM should have better distribution of powers within more checks and balances. 2) New electoral law based on a mix of 128 plus 48 deputies or 108 plus 20 as per floated ideas on the internet. The mix consists of coupling the actual vote with a national scale vote.3) The assignment to the FPM out of its usual quota of 3 fixed ministries during the next presidential mandate: Foreign Affairs, ENERGY and Administrative development.4) start up of a national security body , within which Lebanese armed forces research center will initiate security literature and will define the Lebanese national interest, humint /sigint will be allotted in conformity with this vision. General Shamel Roukoz will be the founder of this sensitive branch. Joint committees with Hezbollah will finalize drafts of defense doctrine. 5) Devolution and other state reforms in education and research will be explored and finalized.
In view of several regional and international dynamics closing the eye on Syrian refugees and yielding to Israeli strategic pressure, the FPM will have traded for above a great amount of sense to the republic.
This is where Saad Hariri and Michel Aoun can act for Lebanon. Hezbollah and the General are trying to figure out how to evolve the Lebanese equation and the above is the DAO. The Maronite lobby needs to extract the best from talks and we need at any cost to avoid chaos and retard in state institutions.
Helping on all parties involved MICHEL AOUN can visualize that we only have two candidates Mrs. Nadine Moussa, and Mr. Ziad Baroud, so he will propose to let these candidates have two TV debates and go for a democratic vote in the parliament .
Hezbollah , the FPM and the FUTURE having signed an evolved understanding based on above, will support Moussa, based on the common social/strategic/economic/reform platform ( wages, opposition to occupation, water and hydrocarbon resources, constitutional reforms, devolution, electoral law, defense doctrine), while Baroud can be endorsed by the rest.
The trinity alliance would have secured LEBANON a new president and a win win situation will be established for the widest majority of the Lebanese.
It is no coincidence Christians are leaving Lebanon, is it because their leaders are much local and shortsighted? I will end by saying that the approach of the March 14 movement is totally wrong versus the presidential file.
The maxim says “ Majnoun yi7ki w 3akil yif7am “ . March 14 a movement anchored on air, has its time high to move forward.

“O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe. ” Langston Hughes

Thank You ,

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2 Responses to Open letter to Michel Aoun

  1. Ziad Maddah says:

    Michel Aoun can trade the following written agreement with Hezbollah and the Future 1) a constitutional revision of the three main powers in the country, the president can call once general elections, the speaker can have the same post for maximum 3 times; the PM should have better distribution of powers within more checks and balances. 2) New electoral law based on a mix of 128 plus 48 deputies or 108 plus 20 as per floated ideas on the internet. The mix consists of coupling the actual vote with a national scale vote.3) The assignment to the FPM out of its usual quota of 3 fixed ministries during the next presidential mandate: Foreign Affairs, ENERGY and Administrative development.4) start up of a national security body , within which Lebanese armed forces research center will initiate security literature and will define the Lebanese national interest, humint /sigint will be allotted in conformity with this vision. General Shamel Roukoz will be the founder of this sensitive branch. Joint committees with Hezbollah will finalize drafts of defense doctrine. 5) Devolution and other state reforms in education and research will be explored and finalized.
    In view of several regional and international dynamics closing the eye on Syrian refugees and yielding to Israeli strategic pressure, the FPM will have traded for above a great amount of sense to the republic.
    This is where Saad Hariri and Michel Aoun can act for Lebanon. Hezbollah and the General are trying to figure out how to evolve the Lebanese equation and the above is the DAO. The Maronite lobby needs to extract the best from talks and we need at any cost to avoid chaos and retard in state institutions.
    Please Explain in plain English these 5 points. THANKS>

    • Elie Nammour says:

      As you know the concept behind the Taef national accord was to have a better distribution of powers in respect of giving priority to the executive prime minister office to have major maneuver in advancing the state affairs. Since TAEF and after 25 years almost the Lebanese formula requires adjustments. The president election needs to be addressed to avoid any vacuum ( please refer to an article by ambassador Abu Habib), and the president powers need to include the option to call for general elections in case of stand off at least once during the mandate. The speaker post needs to have at least a limitation in the number of consecutive mandates, and 3 terms are very sufficient for one person if we don’t want to get into a major institutional immobility. As for the electoral law you can go through my blog and look at the post 128 plus 48 or search for another alternative where some researchers introduced the idea of 108 plus 20 deputies, all is documented on the net, you can GOOGLE it. The FPM or free patriotic movement has been part of all governments in Lebanon since at least 2008 and the idea is to distribute its ministerial quota in two , one fix and one variant, in a negotiation to gain leverage while conceding the presidency. The fix partition will include the mentioned ministries. The national security body is a major requirement where modern approach can be set for the Lebanese national interest . Finally the devolution or reforms are also a necessity and a lot of literature was written on this, you can check on several programs of different candidates or even on some papers produced by the UNESCO on behalf of Lebanon emphasizing the need for science and technology research and development. Basically the spirit here is to link the presidential issue with the effort to upgrade the bilateral agreement between HEZBOLLAH and the Free Patriotic Movement . thank you.

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