OIL @ 250 or the only option today?


United States

United States (Photo credit: Moyan_Brenn)

Dear Reader,

Greetings and Good day,

“The experience of “beauty” often involves an interpretation of some entity as being in balance and harmony with nature, which may lead to feelings of attraction and emotional well-being. Because this can be a subjective experience, it is often said that “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.” Wikipedia

It is a source of comfort that the negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, will set a comprehensive agreement as a new objective.

The interim deal concept is wrong and it was generating much instability, whatever its nature could be.

This instability was likely leading to a unilateral Israeli decision, that would have as side effects a direct confrontation between Iran, Iraq and KSA, sending Oil prices to 250 $.

In fact the interim deal brokered by Russia, would disrupt the US strategy in the ME applied for decades, sending Oil prices to skyrocket and disrupting supplies as per Iranian/Gulf Monarchies clashes.

I am happy though that we saved the USA twice, the first time by trading the attack on Syria with the CW dismantlement keeping in place the objectives of building on Geneva 1, with a transitional government in Syria without Assad. And the second time by trading the interim deal with a strategic comprehensive agreement to be discussed, yet as per the vision already enunciated on the pages of this same blog.

In my view, considering the shrinking population and working force in Russia, and adding the OIL and Gas exports contribution to the GNP, we can easily understand how an interim agreement will be in the best interest of Russia mainly, more than any commercial deal thought by western corporations.

Above all the US administration should also consider that an interim deal would have thrown Gulf Monarchies and Israel alike, in the hands of China which is a great power, suffering a major economic setback from high Oil prices.

The interim deal could blow the US policy of an Asian/Pacific pivot before it takes the required contour, by opening a massive Chinese network in the Mediterranean. The US would have lost its queen in the first openings of the Chess pacific pivot.

From above we can easily realize that while Russia and China will benefit from the interim deal, in different manners, the US would need to deploy costly assets to adjust for a Status- Quo ante, a Dietro – front futile and unnecessary in all cases.

So here comes the Global/US interest in pursuing a comprehensive agreement with Iran, within 3 months, and failure to do this will portray the US in a plan B consisting of further tightening of harsh sanctions.

The only option today is to amplify the diplomatic reach for 3 months until end of February, in a strong desire to achieve a comprehensive agreement.

The beauty of life .

Life is a characteristic that distinguishes objects that have signaling and self-sustaining processes from those that do not, either because such functions have ceased (death), or else because they lack such functions and are classified as inanimate. “ Wikipedia

Thank You,

.

 

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