Greetings and Good Day,
“Something that is bad is unpleasant, harmful, or undesirable... Analysts fear the situation is even worse than the leadership admits”. From the Reverso Dictionary, on Bad Deal
There is a growing consensus that the FED monetary policies, by now, should start giving a boost to the real economy, and not nurture anymore the upcoming bubble in the Stock Exchange. If it is true that what was done so far, was the only unconventional option at hand of a public actor, although privately owned, it is also true that a wise maneuver of tapering in a predictable and gradual way as soon as January ( 5 billion) , will reveal to be a very effective step to enhance the entire US economic architecture.
Architecture! A beautiful word used often nowadays to inform that the sanctions applied on Iran by the world powers are thought within a logic and a built structure. The amazing and fascinating thing is to understand how the architects will develop the plan where “ Iran, as a first step, will stop its nuclear program advancing any further and start rolling parts of it back; and in return the US will enact very limited, temporary and reversible sanctions relief”.
Any devised plan/deal as analysts understand, that will be announced today in Geneva, will be bad, yet they need to figure out and presage how bad it will be.
It is understood that any nuclear deal between the (US plus other powers) and Iran today, will be very bad, mainly because it will respond to the forces in place between the two opposed camps. Both the US and Iran accuse fatigue, dizziness, power shamble after decades of enmity in the New fragmented Middle East and they both look to limit damage and loss as a mutual convenience.
Hence apparently there will be a grand fanfare for a deal that isn’t.
Either Iran will block its activity to a certain date in exchange for some sanctions relief albeit reversible, or the Syrian regime will benefit from a temporary moratorium in exchange for a CW secretly conducted destruction, in both cases main issues will not be resolved.
The Iranian role in the world today and its projection of soft power will require an illuminated vision by a strong leadership, as much as the Syrian population will need an international conference to make up a transitional cabinet, that will start the route for a reformed system of governance, based on homegrown principles and pillars of acceptance and governance sharing.
Assad will try to maintain his power base, but butchers of their own populations will not have any place in any future of respectable nations.
Apparently the weakness of main players is an asset for peace lovers, as this will impede any large conflagration from developing in the ME, however this same weakness is a major liability for entire populations, as it will maintain the entire architecture of instability floating in an area, which is in dire need of good deals to be negotiated and implemented.
What can be the view after the deal, vis a’ vis several issues related to the Geopolitics of the ME? At first it is rational to realize that a very bad deal still to be announced by the US and Iran will be the first deal, secondly that the Russian role is manipulating the US weakness to a major extent, thirdly that the upcoming stage where stability/instability will be brought by a variegated group of weak international players is by itself the base to compare it with an urban monster.
The thought of all players is to deliver an edifice, shaking as it is, yet a meaningful fact that architects of non confrontation, (by itself a non policy leading nowhere), are at work.
How true political solutions will develop in the ME, is about the mystery that the depth of badness will reveal to be in the upcoming deal.
Vision on demand!
“1vi·sion: mode of seeing or conceiving (2): unusual discernment or foresight <a person of vision>” Merriam Webster Dictionary
- Israel clashes with USA over Iran nukes… (telegraph.co.uk)
- Iran Says Nuclear Deal Is Possible (world.time.com)
- Iran Nuclear Talks Resume as U.S. Backs Initial Sanctions Deal – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Iran: Nuclear Deal With U.S. Possible (world.time.com)
- John Kerry says window for nuclear diplomacy with Iran is ‘cracking open’ (theguardian.com)
- Zip in Splendor (thinkingdice.wordpress.com)
- US promises to consult with Israel on any Iran deal (theuglytruth.wordpress.com)